Forecast & Outlook
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Forecast | October 15, 2021
Quarterly Forecast: Strong Housing Market Expected to Persist Notwithstanding Rising Mortgage Rates and Continued High Home Prices
While the U.S economy has reached above its pre-pandemic peak with real GDP growth of over 6% annualized rate in the first two quarters of 2021, the economy still has space to grow. More
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Forecast | July 15, 2021
Quarterly Forecast: Housing Market Expected to Remain Strong Despite Major Supply Shortage and Historically High House Prices Across the U.S. Slowing Sales
The latest employment report from the U.S. Labor Department showed that while the U.S. economy added 850,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, it is still down 6.8 million jobs from February 2020. Job openings have surged to a record high of 9.2 million, and as the economy continues to reopen, we expect the economy to continue to mend. Consensus forecasts put full year U.S. Real GDP growth over 6% in 2021, which would help to close the large gap between the current level of economic activity and potential output. More
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Forecast | April 14, 2021
Quarterly Forecast: As the Economy Recovers, the Housing Market Remains Healthy While Mortgage Rates Move Up
Availability of the vaccine continues to improve, and COVID-19 restrictions are easing therefore sparking economic growth. With the passage of the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, which included payments of up to $1,400 for individuals, $2,800 for married couples plus $1,400 for each dependent, consumer confidence in March reached the highest level since the start of the pandemic. More
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Forecast | January 14, 2021
Quarterly Forecast: Housing Market Continues to Perform Strongly Primarily Driven by Historically Low Mortgage Rates
It’s been close to a year since the pandemic began, and economic growth continues to remain uncertain. The availability of a COVID-19 vaccine and its widespread distribution should steer the economy towards recovery, but the timelines remain unknown. The labor market has recovered from the lows it reached in April of last year but continues to be weak. As of mid-December of 2020, jobless claims were still around 20 million, remaining well above the pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate was 6.7% in December with more permanent job losses and less labor force participation signaling a slowdown in the current labor market recovery. More
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Forecast | October 14, 2020
Quarterly Forecast: Housing Market Continues to Rebound as Mortgage Rates Hover at Record Lows
Economic activity stalled in early July. Even with many businesses reopening, unemployment claims remained high through September. Total jobless claims were about 26 million in the second week of September. More
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Forecast | June 16, 2020
Quarterly Forecast: The Economy is Recovering from a Deep Contraction and Housing is Rebounding, but the Outlook Remains Highly Uncertain
The effect of COVID-19 has been felt around the world and across the United States. As states have begun easing restrictions, the economy is rebounding but continues to be constrained. More
