Top Housing Economists Predict Strong Homeownership Growth in 10-Year Analysis

In a groundbreaking analysis on the nation's housing industry, America's Home Forecast: The Next Decade for Housing and Mortgage Finance, was released by the Homeownership Alliance during a press conference in Washington, DC. Freddie Mac's Chief Economist Frank Nothaft and four other leading housing and mortgage finance economists authored the report where they predicted strong growth in the nation's housing sector over the coming decade.

"America's families will likely need 125 million mortgage loans for home purchase or refinance totaling $27 trillion in mortgage originations. First-time home buyers will remain a major component of the purchase market, buying about 24 million homes over the next decade," said Frank Nothaft of Freddie Mac.

The national homeownership rate is predicted to exceed 70 percent by 2013, and the demand for housing will require the production of about two million new housing units a year, according to the report. The report takes an unprecedented long-term look at the industry and produces forecasts for the next 10 years.

The collaborative economic study addresses several topics, including the outlook for housing demand and supply, homeownership during the next decade, the outlook for home prices over the next decade and mortgage demand and supply.

Specifically, housing forecasts indicate:

• A robust demand will require the production of about two million new housing units per year.
• The national homeownership rate will rise above today's record level and will most likely exceed 70 percent by 2013.
• Home price appreciation should average around 5 percent a year from 2004-2013 but could be above 6 percent if supply constraints continue to tighten.
• Mortgage originations are projected to average nearly $3 trillion per year, and residential mortgage debt is projected to grow close to an 8.25 percent annualized rate.

The five leading housing and mortgage finance economists who wrote the report are: Frank Nothaft – Chief Economist, Freddie Mac; David Berson – Chief Economist, Fannie Mae; David Lereah – Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors^®; Paul Merski – Chief Economist, Independent Community Bankers of America; and David Seiders – Chief Economist, National Association of Home Builders.

To learn more about the study, visit www.homeownershipalliance.com.

Based in Washington, D.C., the Homeownership Alliance is a coalition of more than fifteen organizations committed to ensuring support for the American housing system. Members include Consumer Federation of America, The Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers, The Enterprise Foundation, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Habitat for Humanity International, Independent Community Bankers of America, Independent Insurance Agents & Brokers of America, Local Initiatives Support Corporation, National Association of Federal Credit Unions, National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals, National Association of Home Builders, National Association of Mortgage Brokers, National Association of Real Estate Brokers, National Association of Realtors^®, World Floor Covering Association, National Bankers Association, National Council of La Raza, and National Urban League.